Currently,
the Indian Ocean is a hotbed of conflicting interests for the two
major South Asian political and economic rivals viz India and China.
While India rightly looks upon the Indian Ocean as its backyard with
tremendous strategic importance, China has thrown down the gauntlet
in its bid to claim political and commercial hegemony and naval
supremacy among the countries of the Indian Ocean region.
Riding
on a burgeoning volume of international trade and a booming military
might, it has been on a spree of acquiring strategic assets in the
form of ports in many countries across and beyond the region and
setting up bases, like in Bangladesh (Chittagong), Sri Lanka
(Hambantota), Seychelles, Pakistan (Gwadar), Kenya (Lamu) and
Tanzania (Bagamoyo). Called the ‘String of Pearls’ by Western
sources, these ports would purportedly enable China to secure its
commercial interests in the procurement of raw materials and sources
of energy for its energy deficient economy.
A
likely scenario to emerge over the years in the Chinese scheme of
things is that the dependence of theworld on crude oil will increase
manifold; keeping pace with the demand in oil will be the control of
China over the Indian Ocean. It has accordingly aligned its foreign
and defence policies to ensure its economic success the world over
and emergence as a market leader.Naval BasesAlthough China claims
that the underlying motive of the Pearls of ports is purely an
economic one viz to ensure its maritime interests for energy
security, the current ground realities in the Indian Ocean throw up a
different kind of indicator, making the communist country’s
intentions appear far from innocuous. China has set up electronic
intelligence gathering facilities on islands in the Bay of Bengal,
and funded construction of a canal across the Kra Isthmus in
Thailand. It has entered into a military agreement with Cambodia and
has been building up forces in the South China Sea.
The
Gwadar deep sea port in Pakistan provides China with a ‘listening
post’ from where it can monitor Indian activities in the Arabian
Sea. China can patrol the Indian Ocean sea-lanes for its security of
shipments. It has a naval base on Hainan Island that can hold
submarines, which pose a major threat to the US, but could be a
threat to India too. China has dismissed reports of any plans of
creating military bases overseas, but Chinese maritime strategists
such as Shen Dingli advocate the need for China to set up overseas
military bases.
China
would not fight shy of protecting its energy imports that pass
through the Indian Ocean. Nor is it comfortable with Washington and
New Delhi being the security providers in the region. Inability to
sustain troops in the region would leave a chink in its armour, which
would mean that China’s energy imports would be highly vulnerable
in the event of a military standoff with either the US or
India.
Being
already embroiled in maritime disputes with several countries in the
South and East China seas over the ownership of islands, China is
wary of the possibility of the Indian Ocean waters becoming another
contentious area at some point of time in the future; in the absence
of an effective blue-water Navy to protect its commercial and
political interests.
Ruffling
Indian Feathers
China
has raised India’s hackles by docking submarines at the port of
Colombo in Sri Lanka. India’s concerns have been further raised by
the expansion of Chinese maritime powers with the development of
aircraft carrier battle groups. Currently, China has the largest
aircraft carrier in Asia. And alarm bells rang when Chinese nuclear
submarines carried out patrols in the Bay of Bengal. The possible
presence of Chinese nuclear missiles so close to its coastline was a
matter of utmost concern to India’s nuclear deterrence.
India
and the US
The
first salvo of a resurgent India under the Narendra Modi government
in response to a belligerent China’s ambitious maritime agenda
being aggressively pushed forward by that country was fired soon
after Modi became Prime Minister and visited the US in September
2014. Prominent among the issues discussed by the Indian leader with
President Obama was maritime security of all nations to peacefully
carry out their trade activities in the Indian Ocean.
During
the visit of President Obama to India in January 2015, the two
leaders reaffirmed “the importance of safeguarding maritime
security and ensuring freedom of navigation and overflight throughout
the region, especially in the South China Sea”. They also called
“on all parties to avoid the threat or use of force” in maritime
disputes. China sharply reacted to an India-US joint statement
referring to the disputes in the South China Sea, saying that only
the countries involved in the disputes should work together to
resolve the problems.
“At
the current stage, the situation in the South China Sea is generally
stable and there is no problem with navigational freedom and freedom
of flights,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said.
According to political observers, Modi perceives a greater role for
India in Asian affairs in pursuance of his policy of “Act East”,
coinciding with Obama’s own pivot to Asia policy. Events after Modi
assumed office as Prime Minister, have contributed to bringing India
and the US toward a consensus on China.
India
and Japan
During
his August 2014 visit to Japan, Modi and his Japanese counterpart
reaffirmed the importance of upgrading and strengthening of defence
relations between the two countries in their strategic partnership.
Keeping a wary eye on a rising China, the two leaders agreed to
accelerate talks on the possible sale of an amphibious aircraft to
India. The coming together of the two countries in matters of
strategic partnership was seen by political observers as a bold
initiative on the part of India and Japan to redefine the balance of
power in the region and counter the ambitious expansionist policy of
China.
India’s
Extended Neighbourhood
India
has extended its neighbourhood beyond the South Asian region where it
has its presence in the Southeast and Indo-Pacific region. The
Southeast Asian states have evinced interest in India by playing an
active role in the region to counter the dominant Chinese position.
India in recent years has strengthened its relations in the Southeast
Asian region in pursuance of its ‘Look East Policy’ launched in
the 1990s and reinvigorated and renamed under the Modi government as
‘Act East Policy’. India has integrated the Pacific in its
extended neighbourhood concept. It has signaled that its Act East
Policy was not limited to Southeast Asia, but goes beyond that to
Australia and other Pacific Ocean nations.
India
is not interested in taking on China in a direct confrontation.
However, Chinese imperialist designs may succeed in uniting the
countries of the Southeast Asian region. China would not be inclined
to bargain for such a situation as it would be difficult for it to
contend with. Any alignment of interest in the region would
significantly affect the balance of power, posing serious
consequences for all nations. India’s growing technological
advances (with the launch of Agni-V) has placed it amongst an elite
group of nations. This in itself has far-reaching consequences for
the States in the region.
Strengthening
Bilateral Relations with Island Nations
With
a view to countering China, India has upgraded its military ties with
Maldives, Madagascar and Myanmar in the Indian Ocean and with
Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines,
Australia and Japan. India has also enhanced its economic and
security relations with South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam,
Singapore, Indonesia, and Australia.
In
order to counter China’s naval presence in the Indian Ocean, India
has its naval presence in the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean.
Malaysia launched defence cooperation with India by signing a
memorandum of understanding in 1993. Defence cooperation between the
two countries has been revived in 2008. Since then India has had a
substantive military mission in Malaysia, focusing on training pilots
and air force personnel.
Singapore
has emerged as the closest security partner of India in the East,
given its critical location in the Strait of Malacca at the
confluence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Thailand is holding
joint naval exercise with Indian Navy and under the comprehensive MoU
signed in 2005 they are regularly conducting exercises in the area
adjacent to their international maritime boundary lines. India is
increasing its defence cooperation with Indonesia after the related
cooperation agreement of 2001.
Australia
and India concluded a pact on joint naval exercise in 2005 and a more
comprehensive memorandum of understanding on maritime security
cooperation in 2006. And during the visit of Prime Minister Kevin
Rudd to India in November 2009, both sides agreed to enhance their
defence interaction, with a special emphasis on naval cooperation.
Furthermore, India has signed agreements to develop infrastructure
with two Indian Ocean countries, Mauritius and Seychelles in their
two islands – Agalega and Assumption.
India
and Maldives
Despite
its geographical proximity to India and having historically been
within India’s sphere of strategic influence, Maldives has
increasingly been strengthening its relationship with Beijing.
Chinese investments in the Maldives have increased over the years,
ranging from housing projects to other infrastructure projects such
as building roads and airports. This has become a major cause of
concern for New Delhi.
India
and Seychelles
Location
of Seychelles and its proximity to the coast of Africa makes it a
lucrative option for Beijing to establish a naval base in that
country. China is already participating in anti-piracy operations in
the Gulf of Aden and has growing economic interests in Africa.
However, India and Seychelles share close military ties as New Delhi
helps the island nation secure its EEZ by presenting surveillance
aircrafts and patrolling ships.
India
and Sri Lanka
The
previous government of Mahinda Rajapaksa appeared fairly
China-friendly, awarding many infrastructure development projects to
Beijing. The Maithripala Sirisena government is now reviewing all
Chinese investments in the country, especially the US$1.5 billion
port city project. The Sirisena government has also reassured India
that such “incidents, from whatever quarter, do not take place
under our tenure”.
India
and Mauritius
As
Mauritius looks to attract investments from China, India is stepping
up its game by providing a 1,300-tonne Indian-built patrol vessel,
the Barracuda, to Mauritius to help the island nation protect its
coastline. While India may not indulge in any China containment
policy, New Delhi realizes it is absolutely crucial to reengage with
these islands and secure its strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific
region.
China’s
Stated Position
While
affirming that it has no plans to set up naval bases in the countries
of the Indian Ocean region, China has warned that the Indian Ocean
could end up “as an ocean of conflict and trouble” if countries
like India, the US and China itself failed to engage with each other
more constructively as their interests begin to overlap.
India’s
Call
This
is an opportune moment for India which has achieved political
stability under Narendra Modi’s leadership to expand trade with
China and to go all out for the settlement of the border issue. With
support from regional countries and associations, India can play a
decisive role in the region and the world. To this end, it is
imperative that India take pro-active measures to engage China in
dialogues for settling its long standing border disputes with that
country. It is an established fact that China would only involve
itself in any meaningful exercise of resolution of disputes when the
adversary nation is politically stable, economically vibrant and
militarily formidable.
India
should strive and acquire the required edge under the present
dispensation in the country and emerge as a strong enough partner
nation, to do business with China. Needless to say, despite the
Western orientation of India’s foreign policy in recent times,
India should accord top priority to its own interests while dealing
with a militarily and economically stronger China which views the
West with suspicion. And acquisition of an early Permanent Member
status in the United Nations Security Council would set India in the
same league as China, which is an essential prerequisite for
checkmating the latter in the Indian Ocean.
